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作者：Kris Graft
虽然预测电子游戏这样一个变化多端的行业趋势是项困难的任务，但不时推测其未来走向仍不失为一件趣事。
Starr Long是拥有20年资历的行业元老，之前曾是《Ultima Online》项目主管，目前与Richard Garriott共同开发Portalarium游戏《Shroud of the Avatar》。在最近的GDC Next演讲中，他阐述了自己所认为的9大电子游戏趋势。
他称未来10年电子游戏的主题将是电子与数字、界面与游戏体验之间的界线将趋于模糊。
Starr-Long(from gamestar.de)
混搭/交叉：数字+实体+UGC+制造者+品牌
数字和实体交叉的趋势日益明显，例如当前热销的《Skylanders》、《Disney Infinity》及《愤怒的小鸟》telepod，它们都推出了实体玩具并加入电子元素，有时候还能获得巨大的商业成功。
由于3D打印机和扫描器的盛行，这种实体与数字产品的交叉将不再是动视和迪士尼等大型公司的专利。
“当人们用MakerBot或Digitizer令实体和数字产品交叉时，就可以创造像《Skylanders》或《Infinity》当中的那中玩具。”
开发者不但能够制作能够彼此交互的数字和实体产品，还有可能催生出允许人们相互买卖作品的用户导向型商场。
随着围绕材料科学的3D打印技术的进一步发展，实体和数字产品将更容易实现交叉，为这种社区导向的创造趋势铺路。
界面/显示/可穿戴：扩散和演变
Long表示：“这会以疯狂的速度演变。”会在人们接触其表面时发生变化的触感屏幕，通过在整个房间投射图像而扩大屏幕的Illumiroom技术，生物反馈技术和Google Glass均是即将为电子游戏新体验而融合的界面技术代表。
更深的沉浸感和更低型的游戏
Long还认为虽然有许多言论认为《愤怒的小鸟》等小型、大众市场游戏将取代庞大、富有沉浸感的AAA游戏开发，但这两种游戏却有可能“和平共存”。
他称游戏开发者的机遇在于创造那种整合深度体验和小型体验的游戏——实际上就是在一系列设备上引进同款游戏的不同层面。这是我们今天已经可以看到的现象，但Long认为这一趋势在未来数年将更为明显。
随时随地玩游戏
用户玩游戏，与游戏的互动将不再局限于同一台设备或同一个地点，我们现在可以从PlayStation Network的Cross-Buy和苹果的通用版应用中看到这种现象。
Long表示，“这种随时随地玩游戏的理念，很快就会成为一个人们所期望的必备元素。”
开发平等化
在未来10年中，游戏开发的平等化将更为明显。这一点起源于技术平等化（游戏邦：游戏引擎和工具普遍具有易用性），并向由大众融资而引发的经济平等化扩散。
游戏化扩散
Long认为将日常体验变得更为游戏化将持续成为趋势。
“这可以是好事也可能是坏事。我们开发者的危险在于这可能会引向非游戏体验，并且一点也不有趣。仅仅是在你的网站中丢一堆勋章有可能带来消极暗示。”
如果公众对游戏的机制的喜好并不一致（例如RPG升级这种粗制滥造的游戏化设置），那么游戏就会受到消极影响。“我们不应该让游戏化夺走我们游戏开发者一些极为强大的工具。”
盈利模式和价格侵蚀
从许多方面来看，电子游戏的价格侵蚀是一个不幸的趋势，但却是许多游戏开发者在未来十年同江得不应对或解决的局面。Long对此表示，“我们创造了50-60美元游戏，这对用户来说是家庭娱乐体验的最高价格点。”
但现在的游戏已经引进了过去并不购买高价道具的用户，价格侵蚀问题也几乎立即浮现。
“这并不是坏事……这是一种完全开放的情况。但对于制作游戏的多数人来说，这真的太难赚钱了。”
新认知能力
Long称游戏将为玩家带来新认知能力。像《传送门》、《Braid》和《Perspective》等游戏促使玩家以新角度思考空间和时间等问题。
例如《传送门》中的枪（令玩家制造3D空间的进出口）就引进了一种复杂但却易用的理念。
对于《Briad》，“我认为玩过这类游戏之后，你就会更了解时间的作用，这并不是一个线性的过程。”
数字科学和多重有意义的身份
人们的数字身份在未来数年将凸显其重要性，Long预测“未来你将在数字空间拥有与你‘真实’身份一样重要的数字身份”。我们现在已经可以通过社交媒体看出这一点，这些社交用户资料就反映了用户的不同个性和职业身份。
人们的数字身份可以是某公会的成员，也可以是《英雄联盟》中的虚拟角色。Long表示“如果你在10年前告诉我，将有5万人涌进某区域观看5个人玩电子游戏，我可能会对此不屑地笑笑……但现在我们确实该开始思考数字社会的可能性。”（本文为游戏邦/gamerboom.com编译，拒绝任何不保留版权的转载，如需转载请联系：游戏邦）
9 trends for the next decade of video games
By Kris Graft
Predicting the future of a space that’s as dynamic as the video game industry is a difficult task, but it’s still fun to speculate every now and then.
Starr Long is a 20-year industry veteran who was formerly project director on Ultima Online, and currently working on Portalarium’s Shroud of the Avatar with Richard Garriott. At GDC Next this morning, he explained nine trends he sees for the future of games.
Long said the overarching theme for the next 10 years of video games is a blurring of boundaries – between digital and physical, interfaces and game experiences.
Mashups/crossover: Digital + Physical + UGC + Makers + Brands
Digital and physical crossover is picking up speed, Long explains, whether you’re talking about today’s top-selling Skylanders, Disney Infinity or Angry Birds telepods, which take physical toys and adds an electronic element, sometimes with huge commercial success.
This digital and physical crossover won’t be exclusively in the hands of large companies like Activision and Disney for long, thanks to 3D printers and scanners.
“When people start trying to cross [physical and digital items] with the MakerBot or the Digitizer … [people] could create a toy like in Skylanders or Infinity.”
Creators will be able to not only make digital and physical products that interact with one another, but Long also envisions user-driven marketplaces that will form where people can buy and sell each others’ creations.
Once the material science around 3D printing advances further, there will be easier crossover between physical and digital, paving the way for such community-driven creations.
Interface/display/wearable: Proliferation and evolution
“It’s evolving at an insane pace,” said Long. Haptic touch screens that change how they feel when you touch them, Illumiroom that expands the screen by projecting images throughout an entire room, biofeedback technology and Google Glass all represent accelerating interface technology that are poised to merge for new experiences in video games.
Deeper Immersion and Lighter Games
Long also expects that although there’s a lot of talk about smaller, mass market games like Angry Birds displacing the huge, immersive triple-A game productions, both kinds of games will be able to “peacefully coexist.”
The opportunity for game developers, says Long, is to create games that blend deeper experiences with smaller experiences – essentially to bring different aspects of a single game across a variety of devices. It’s something that we’re already seeing today, but Long says the trend will become more prominent in coming years.
Play Anywhere: Any Device, Any Location
Being able to play, interact or interface with a game won’t be limited to one device or location, said Long. We’re starting to see this with PlayStation Network’s Cross-Buy and Apple’s Universal apps, for example.
“This idea that I can play anywhere or any time, you’re not going to be able to get away with not supporting it, pretty soon,” Long said. “People are going to expect it.”
Developer Democratization
The democratization of game development will only become more apparent in the next decade, said Long. Democratization has expanded from technology — with the accessibility of game engines and tools — to economic democratization, thanks to crowdfunding.
Even hardware creation is becoming democratized, if you look at devices like Raspberry Pi and Android-based consoles like Ouya and GameStick that are funded by an interested community.
Gamification Proliferation
Making every day experiences more game-like is a trend that will continue, Long said.
“This can be a good thing or also a very bad thing. The danger for us as developers is that it can be introduced to non-game experiences, and not be fun. Just throwing a bunch of badges on your website [can bring a negative connotation].”
If the general public gets a bad taste in its mouth about game mechanics, like RPG leveling, that are co-opted by poorly-done gamification, games can be negatively impacted. “Let’s not let gamification take away some very powerful tools we have as game developers,” said Long.
Monetization Models and Price Erosion
Price erosion on video games is an unfortunate trend in many respects, but one that many game developers will have to deal with or address in the coming decade, said Long. “We built a business based on $50 and $60 games, which is the highest price for an at-home entertainment experience hat you will pay,” he noted.
But now games are bringing in an audience that isn’t used to buying items that are so pricey. Price erosion happened almost immediately.
“This isn’t a bad thing…It’s an eyes-wide-open [scenario]. But for the vast number of people making games [it's tough to make money].”
New Cognition
Long said games will bring about new cognitive abilities for players. Games like Portal, Braid and Perspective offer new ways for players to think about space and time.
The Portal gun, which lets players make entry and exit points in a 3D space, introduces complex concepts and makes them accessible, for example. “That’s not a cognitive ability you had before you did this,” Long said.
As for Braid, “I would posit that after playing something like this you’d have a better idea of how time works, that it’s not a linear progression.”
Digital Societies and Multiple Meaningful Identities
Peoples’ digital identities will become increasingly important in the years ahead, Long predicted. “You can have an identity in the digital space that is just as relevant important and real as your ‘real’ identity.” We can already see this with social media profiles that reflect different aspects of ones’ personal and professional identities.
Peoples’ digital identity could be as a member of a guild, or an avatar in League of Legends. “If you would’ve told me 10 years ago that 50,000 people would cram into an arena and watch five guys play a video game, I would’ve laughed in your face. … We really have to start thinking about digital societies,” said Long.（source：gamasutra） |
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